Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025
000 FONT15 KNHC 150249 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 0300 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 4(27) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 2(15) X(15) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 2(17) 1(18) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 1(13) 1(14) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 1(20) X(20) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 10(25) X(25) 1(26) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 9(26) 1(27) X(27) SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 19(28) 3(31) X(31) 1(32) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 3(18) X(18) 1(19) SABA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) AVES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN