000
ABNT20 KNHC 211758
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic is producing
limited showers and thunderstorms well to the west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Although environmental conditions are not
favorable for initial development of this system over the next day
or two, these conditions should gradually become more favorable for
development by the middle to latter part of this week, and a
tropical depression could form while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.

East of the Windward Islands:
Another tropical wave located more than 500 miles to the east of the
Windward Islands is currently is producing a small area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves quickly westward.
Earlier satellite-derived wind data indicated the wave does not have
a closed circulation. Environmental conditions appear only
marginally conducive for further development over the next several
days as the wave continues to move quickly westward to west-
northwestward at around 20 mph. By the latter part of this week,
the system is expected to slow down and turn more northwestward to
the north of Hispaniola. Regardless of development, the system is
expected to bring gusty winds and showers for portions of the
Leeward Islands on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin