000
ABNT20 KNHC 212315
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic a few
hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic is producing
limited showers and thunderstorms well to the west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Although dry air should prevent any significant
development over the next day or two, environmental conditions
should gradually become more favorable for development by the middle
to latter part of this week, and a tropical depression could form
while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across
the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.

East of the Windward Islands:
A tropical wave located more than 500 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing scattered disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive
for slow development over the next several days as the wave moves
quickly westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the
latter part of this week, the system is expected to slow down and
turn more northwestward to the north of Hispaniola. Regardless of
development, gusty winds and showers are expected for portions of
the Leeward Islands Monday night and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen